There is however, an added complication. How many difficult decisions can the government take on 28 October and could the more difficult ones be kicked down the road until Spring 2027?
There's growing speculation that this first budget could be relatively focussed, 'steady as she goes' with the more significant decisions following next year. Don't expect the Autumn Budget to be painless though.
The government is committed to its fiscal rules, but borrowing and energy costs are high, inflation is rising, and recent world developments mean there's likely very limited room available in the public finances. The government has been warned by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) to explain how it intends to deal with future spending pressures rather than putting those decisions off.
What should business owners and individuals be watching?
What do you need to know and consider as the Chancellor's statement draws closer?
Of note, these are our predictions based on speculation and reporting in the press and online. They’re definitely not confirmed policy, so please treat them as conjecture rather than something to act on. Here are quick links to some of the areas we think could matter most.
Reports suggest a broad increase in Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is no longer on the cards with no rise expected in the headline rate. However, some business owners may not be off the hook!
The Treasury is reported to have been considering reforms to how certain family businesses are passed from one generation to the next. The focus appears to be on arrangements involving redeemable shares and company share buybacks, where, under certain conditions the proceeds can be taxed as capital rather than income.
The Government have already had consultations in June of this year on plans to prevent company value being extracted at CGT rates where it believes those proceeds should be treated as income. If those proposals are taken forward then some business owners could face Income Tax rates of up to 45% as opposed to CGT at up to 24% where proceeds that could be caught in these potential new rules.
What to consider: Are you a family business owner currently considering succession planning? Could these potential reforms impact on how you pass your business on, or the tax cost of doing so? Consider carefully what you're trying to achieve and if these mooted changes could alter the financial outcome.
Likelihood of this happening in our opinion: 4/5.
Property we suspect remains in the tax spotlight.
Change is already coming in the form of additional Income Tax rates on property income due from April 2027 and applied at:
That's 2 percentage points above the corresponding current rates.
However, could the Chancellor go further, for example by revisiting Stamp Duty Land Tax, the tax treatment of landlords, reliefs available on property transactions, or higher-value property charges. There could also be further changes affecting second homes, investment property or how property income and gains are taxed.
This would potentially impact:
What to consider: Be sure to separate what has already been legislated for from what's merely being discussed. The reality is property taxation is changing regardless of announcements on 28 October 2026.
Likelihood of further announcements: 3/5
Inheritance Tax (IHT) is another area worth watching closely.
There has been political discussion about whether IHT could ultimately play a role in funding social care through reforms to how estates are taxed.
There are already significant changes affecting pensions and IHT that are due to take effect from April 2027. Although these reforms are experiencing challenges as professional bodies are liaising with the government to resolve practical problems before the proposals become law.
It could be that the technical amendments come in this Autumn statement, and more fundamental redesign of IHT for social care funding might form part of the 2027 package.
There's been historical speculation that the amount of time you need to live for a gift to be free of IHT could potentially increase from 7 to 10 years moving forward. Also a lifetime cap may also be introduced on the total value of the gifts you make prior to death.
Consideration: If estate planning is relevant to you, don’t necessarily presume that waiting for future Budgets will provide more clarity and thereby make the decision easier. Consider starting with what you want your wealth to achieve and how that will work within the current rules before you make significant transfers.
Likelihood of technical changes: 4/5
Likelihood of major IHT reform this Budget: 2/5
This has received fewer press headlines, but it could be important.
Raising the largest tax rates could be politically very difficult, but another option open to the government is to improve collection, compliance, and enforcement.
Recent tax-policy work has been conducted with the aim of bridge the hypothetical tax gap. This has included :
Don't be surprised if there's more investment in HMRC systems and people, as well as greater pressure on taxpayers and businesses to get reporting right the first time. This is a trend seen in previous budgets with more funding to recruit further HMRC officers.
Consideration: Good record keeping, robust accounting systems, accessible accounting information, dealing with tax liabilities early, and budgeting for making payment are likely to become increasingly important as HMRC scrutiny and collection activity increase.
Likelihood: 4/5
The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales (ICAEW) has urged the Chancellor not to increase employment taxation further and has called for a freeze in the business-rates multiplier for 2027/28. They argue that firms need breathing space after several years of consistently rising costs.
The Chancellor is then faced with 2 competing pressures:
Don't be surprised if there's some targeted and specific support around business rates and other costs as opposed to more taxation on employing people.
Consideration: Growing businesses should continue modelling and projecting future employment and premises costs rather than assuming today's cost base will remain unchanged.
Likelihood of some targeted business support: 3/5
Several pension-related tax changes have already been announced or legislated for, and these include the future treatment of unused pension funds for Inheritance Tax purposes.
The most credible October story therefore looks less like another pension raid and more like technical amendments to make existing reforms more workable before April 2027. The CIOT has already raised implementation concerns with the Government.
Consideration: Avoid making major pension decisions purely because of newspaper speculation. Look instead at how existing changes affect your retirement and estate-planning strategy.
Likelihood of technical changes: 4/5
Likelihood of another major pension-tax overhaul: 2/5
This may be the prediction worth watching most closely.
There are credible signs that some of the Government’s larger decisions could be postponed until next year. This is so that the new Cabinet can achieve greater clarity around spending plans, social care, defence costs, and the performance of the wider economy.
That said, the IFS has warned that the Government needs a believable plan for meeting future spending pressures now, even if some individual tax measures aren't implemented immediately.
The Chancellor could therefore use the October statement to:
This upcoming Budget could tell us almost as much about what's likely to comes next year as it does about what changes immediately.
Likelihood of a larger 2027 fiscal event: 4/5
By all means consume the headlines, but we'd recommend you do far less than many of the articles out there suggest.
Budget speculation can stir emotions of fear to act quickly. That may be to sell an asset, make a gift, change a pension contribution, or restructure something because a rumoured tax change could happen.
The problem is this creates a danger of making a poor long-term decision simply to avoid a tax measure that may never be introduced.
So, we'd suggest you consider the following questions instead:
If so, understanding your position and options before 28 October is likely to be very worthwhile.
Not every budget rumour will come to fruition.
But knowing where you stand can provide you with more options if things do change.
As we've said in other posts, 'the tax tail shouldn't wag the dog'.
Consider the financial options that work best for you and your circumstances first. Then consider and calculate the tax consequences of those potential options.
The content of this post was created on 21/10/2026.
Please be aware that information provided by this blog is subject to regular legal and regulatory change. We recommend that you do not take any information held within our website or guides (eBooks) as a definitive guide to the law on the relevant matter being discussed. We suggest your course of action should be to seek legal or professional advice where necessary rather than relying on the content supplied by the author(s) of this blog.
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